Adrian Gomez Investments

As I've mentioned in previous articles I believe the Company will go lower in the next few months. I have backed my words with some of my money on PUT options in the mid-single digits expiring in July 2018 and January 2019 as you can see on the picture of my position. I've explained how the company is expecting to be more levered in the next coming months and how their financials are deteriorating as presented in their most recent 10-K filing. I have also given you my personal opinion on why I believe the company will experience lower margins during this fiscal year and an my overall thesis on why I think there's more trouble ahead for the company. However, I am only human and my fears get to me. Market sentiment is on the rise, companies have been beating expectations and I can't do but wonder if my research will hold true. I still believe that the company still has to clear some hurdles before a turnaround is in place. Interest expense is a clear exampl...

The first quarter for 2018 is gone and an earnings date has been announced for UA 's on May 1. I have been reading their latest 10-K filing and trying to find a clue on where the Company is headed. My findings are nowhere near pleasant but I assure you I've given this my best case scenario on everything and even then the numbers don't look good. Let me start with " Net Revenue " , the Company has been showing signs of deceleration in that area. It had been expanding at an average rate of 21.2 % annually over the last 4 years but with the slowest of them being last year at only 3.2%. Being generous, I will give this area an estimated 10% increase to an expected $1,229M when compared to same quarter last year of $1.12B . I said I am being generous because not only the company has shown signs of deceleration when it comes to Net Revenue but it has actually decreased in the sales here in North America where it lost 5.1% during 2017 (the equivalent to al...

Summary Revenue growth has decelerated considerably. Margins continue to shrink. Operating Income is almost non existent now. Under Armour's ( UA , UAA ) revenue as reported in their 10K for 2017 showed signs of deceleration and margins shrinkage causing their financials to deteriorate. Revenue stopped improving while their COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) and SG&A (Selling, General & Administrative Expense) continued their upward trend. This all started in 2015 when the Total Revenue of the company started to decelerate. From an impressive 32.25% increase in 2014 to a marginal 3.15% in 2017. But, who can blame a company increasing its revenue at double digits per year? It wasn't until 2017 that the company apparently found its peak.  COGS as % of Revenue also is showing signs of stress. In 2017 the company reported that for every $100.00 dollars in revenue it had to spend $55.02 to produce or buy the merchandise and services they sell. When in the past it w...

Today, November 20, 2013 JC Penney announced its third quarter results with a press release followed by a conference call before the markets opened for business. Overall, I believe that it was good news for the longs (such as myself). However, skepticism is still hanging in there as the material results were disappointing and the only good news are the trends that seem to be improving but are yet to show on the quarterly results. As promised, I will give you, what I believe are the most important things from the conference call and quarterly results for your review. Mike Ullman the CEO mentioned that "the turnaround for J.C. Penney is beginning to take hold" He also said that during the third quarter "we began generating positive sales momentum". Nevertheless, those positive sales trends are not yet materialized and reflected into this quarter results. Margins on sales are not yet improving. In fact, they are deteriorating based on the same period last yea...

El Toro, a Spanish term meaning The Bull, is a wooden roller coaster at Six Flags Great Adventure in Jackson, New Jersey. The ride is wild, and not appropriate for those with a heart condition. The same applied to the shares of Deckers Outdoor Corp (NASDAQ: DECK) during 2012, where, a very good example of the effects of “Over Promising and Under Delivering” was in full display. Starting on Jan 3, 2012 when the shares were trading at $76.42 and soon after, on Feb 23, 2012 they had gone up to $90.21 rewarding investors with a nice return of 18% in less than two months’ time, it was at this point when management came out and gave full fiscal year and 1Q12 guidance. The full year guidance was in line with analysts’ estimates as reported by Reuters but the guidance given for 1Q12 was below estimates, giving the shares its first punch of the year and sending them lower. The down trend continued pretty much all year, with every quarter management coming out and lowering guidance...